The simplest climate model ever

-SOI = 0.1 C/yr SST + volcanoes

SOI equals the derivative of SST i.e SST is the integral of SOI (inverted) minus volcanic impact

Climate driver

The all-dominant climate driver on the decadal scale is volcanism

and the large eruptions are triggered by the Moon caused by the 9 years perigee cycle. The Moon's perigee is moving forwards in its orbit, and makes a complete circuit in about 9 years.

The volcanic influence is also clearly seen in the sea-level change rate

The lunar influence is also important on the annual scale as it is causing solar eclipses with a 3.6 years periodicity. Every 3.6 years (avg) there are eclipses at low latitudes and temperature tend to increase. Perhaps mass is pulled towards the equator slowing down Earth's rotation which again could have an impact on the trade winds.
There is even a 'PDO-signal' in the eclipse curve,10 yr average.

Eclipse data from http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MCSE.html by Fred Espenak and Jean Meeus

update 28. apr. 2010:

Solar cycle driver

I was confused for a while by this last figure (from landscheidt.auditblogs.com) showing Ju-Ea-Ve “most aligned days” together with the solar cycle because it shouldn't matter, and it doesn't. The key is the first figure showing the quadratures. There's a acceleration configuration when Ju is in the western quadrature and at the same time Ve in eastern elongation. Then we get a 'chain reaction'. Ju pulls on Ea, Ea pulls on Ve which is accelerated forcing the Sun to accelerate because Ve, Sun/Ve-Barycenter and Sun must always line up. The deceleration configuration is the opposite. Ju in eastern quadrature and Ve in western elongation will decelerate Ve and the Sun. The important thing is that this means the Sun is not in totally free fall. It's like putting a huge rocket on Venus speeding it up and slowing it down, these motions are not caused by gravity between Sun-planet and the Sun must take the energy from it's own rotation, explaining the dynamo and the sun spots.

There are both acceleration and deceleration configurations every few years but for 11 years periods one dominates the other and the best aligned L-shapes are always around solar minima. I have only included the 1900s but I have checked the 1800s also showing the same.


Because the Sun is revolving around the barycenter it will have to decrease it's rotation when beeing accelerated and visa versa. We should perhaps be able to detect this variation, and we are:

Figure 3. The deviation of the rotation velocity from its average value at
corresponding latitudes. The "window" for the spectral analysis was 12 years.
The regions where rotation decelerates painted dark. The velocity was averaged
over the northern and southern hemispheres.
 
From:  http://www.solarstation.ru/TL/PDF/tl_22.pdf

22-Year Variations of the Solar Rotation

A. G. Tlatov and V. I. Makarov
Kislovodsk solar station of the Pulkovo observatory, Kislovodsk, Russia
Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Saint Petersburg, Russia


Then we put in the periods of favourable configuration (from http://math-ed.com/Resources/GIS/Geometry_In_Space/java1/Temp/TLVisPOrbit.html)

Perhaps we should also be able to find traces of the planatary conjunctions in the Sun.

The following figures are from http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0711/0711.0799v1.pdf
Temporal Variations in the Sun’s Rotational Kinetic Energy
H. M. Antia, S. M. Chitre and D. O. Gough

Blue lines with conjunctions my addition